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1 | Update available! Click here for the latest version. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Serial interval (days) | 4 | Start Date | 3/17 | About Jirav | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Infection fatality rate | 1.00% | Active Cases at Start | 4,001 | Jirav connects your financial and operational data to let you easily explore historical operations and accurately forecast your bookings, revenues, workforce, expenses and cash flows. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Undocumented cases factor | 6 | Total Cases at Start | 6,344 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Visit Website | Basic reproduction number (R0) | 2.5 | Cumulative Deaths at Start | 110 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Request Demo | Hospitalization rate | 10.00% | Population of the United States | 331 | in millions | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | ICU rate | 5.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | To copy this model and test your own assumptions, go to File > Make a Copy. To copy, you must be signed in with a Google Account. If you don't have a Google Account, try Download. | Total staffed hospital beds | 924,107 | Starting data and actuals are sourced from Worldometer: | How to use | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Total staffed ICU beds | 55,663 | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ | Enter your assumptions in the green shaded cells | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | ||
13 | Date | 3/17 | 3/21 | 3/25 | 3/29 | 4/2 | 4/6 | 4/10 | 4/14 | 4/18 | 4/22 | 4/26 | 4/30 | 5/4 | 5/8 | 5/12 | 5/16 | 5/20 | 5/24 | 5/28 | 6/1 | 6/5 | 6/9 | 6/13 | 6/17 | 6/21 | 6/25 | 6/29 | 7/3 | 7/7 | 7/11 | 7/15 | 7/19 | 7/23 | 7/27 | 7/31 | |
14 | Scenario | Actuals <ā | ā> Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | Controls effectiveness | 0% | 5% | 20% | 25% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | |
16 | ^^ Enter your estimate for each interval | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | R0 (natural reproductive rate) | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
18 | Re (effective rate) | 2.50 | 2.38 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
19 | Fatality rate | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | |
20 | New active infections | 24,006 | 60,015 | 142,536 | 285,072 | 534,510 | 801,765 | 1,002,206 | 1,002,206 | 751,655 | 563,741 | 422,806 | 317,105 | 237,829 | 178,372 | 133,779 | 100,334 | 75,251 | 56,438 | 42,329 | 31,747 | 23,810 | 17,858 | 13,394 | 10,046 | 7,535 | 5,651 | 4,238 | 3,179 | 2,384 | 1,788 | 1,341 | 1,006 | 755 | 566 | 425 | |
21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | New cases requiring hospitalization | 2,401 | 6,002 | 14,254 | 28,507 | 53,451 | 80,177 | 100,221 | 100,221 | 75,166 | 56,374 | 42,281 | 31,711 | 23,783 | 17,837 | 13,378 | 10,033 | 7,525 | 5,644 | 4,233 | 3,175 | 2,381 | 1,786 | 1,339 | 1,005 | 754 | 565 | 424 | 318 | 238 | 179 | 134 | 101 | 76 | 57 | 43 | |
23 | New cases requiring intensive care | 1,200 | 3,001 | 7,127 | 14,254 | 26,726 | 40,088 | 50,110 | 50,110 | 37,583 | 28,187 | 21,140 | 15,855 | 11,891 | 8,919 | 6,689 | 5,017 | 3,763 | 2,822 | 2,116 | 1,587 | 1,191 | 893 | 670 | 502 | 377 | 283 | 212 | 159 | 119 | 89 | 67 | 50 | 38 | 28 | 21 | |
24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | Total infections (active + recovered) | 38,064 | 98,079 | 240,615 | 525,687 | 1,060,197 | 1,861,962 | 2,864,168 | 3,866,374 | 4,618,029 | 5,181,770 | 5,604,576 | 5,921,681 | 6,159,510 | 6,337,882 | 6,471,661 | 6,571,995 | 6,647,246 | 6,703,684 | 6,746,013 | 6,777,760 | 6,801,570 | 6,819,428 | 6,832,822 | 6,842,868 | 6,850,403 | 6,856,054 | 6,860,292 | 6,863,471 | 6,865,855 | 6,867,643 | 6,868,984 | 6,869,990 | 6,870,745 | 6,871,311 | 6,871,736 | |
26 | Total US population infected | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | |
27 | ^^ Over 70% is not realistic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | New deaths | 240 | 600 | 1,425 | 2,851 | 5,345 | 8,018 | 10,022 | 10,022 | 7,517 | 5,637 | 4,228 | 3,171 | 2,378 | 1,784 | 1,338 | 1,003 | 753 | 564 | 423 | 317 | 238 | 179 | 134 | 100 | 75 | 57 | 42 | 32 | 24 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | ||
29 | Cumulative deaths | 110 | 350 | 950 | 2,375 | 5,226 | 10,571 | 18,589 | 28,611 | 38,633 | 46,150 | 51,787 | 56,015 | 59,186 | 61,564 | 63,348 | 64,686 | 65,689 | 66,442 | 67,006 | 67,429 | 67,746 | 67,984 | 68,163 | 68,297 | 68,397 | 68,472 | 68,529 | 68,571 | 68,603 | 68,627 | 68,645 | 68,658 | 68,668 | 68,676 | 68,682 | |
30 | Actuals | 110 | 301 | 1027 | 2484 | 6088 | 10895 | 18747 | 26,047 | 39014 | 47894 | 55413 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | Please note: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | This relatively simple viral model has many limitations, including: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | - Does not account for reductions in infections from "herd immunity" ā as a larger percentage of the population becomes infected and recovers, they can no longer themselves become reinfected. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | - All deaths are assumed to occur interval following infection. In reality, death may follow infection many intervals later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | - A single case fatality rate is assumed for the entire model. In reality, case fatality varies widely by region and hospital capacity. For example, if a hospital runs out of ventilators, fatality rate could spike to 5% as seen in areas such as the Lombardy region of Italy. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | - The effectiveness of current controls at reducing the reproductive rate is not known and is a best guess. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | - Geographic boundaries or travel restrictions within the United States are not accounted for separately. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | - Does not account for variations in the population that make some people more resistant or immune vs. others | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||